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Expected Move Calculator
Enter a stock price, implied volatility and number of days, or the ATM call and put prices, and see the implied one-sigma and two-sigma price ranges instantly. All numbers are yours; this calculator makes no market data requests.
Results
Expected move$5.735.73%
1-sigma range$94.27 – $105.73
2-sigma range$88.53 – $111.47
How it is calculated
From IV: The formula annualizes implied volatility and scales it to your time horizon.
move = price × (IV / 100) × √(days / 365) 1σ range = price ± move 2σ range = price ± (2 × move)
From straddle: The ATM straddle price (call + put) is the market's own implied move. No IV needed.
move = ATM call + ATM put range = price ± move
The two methods often agree closely. When they differ, the straddle price reflects current bid/ask on the live chain, while the IV formula depends on where you source IV.
Frequently asked questions
What is the expected move in options trading?
The expected move is the range a stock is likely to stay within by an options expiration date, based on implied volatility. A one-sigma expected move covers roughly 68% of outcomes; two sigma covers about 95%. Traders use it to set realistic price targets, pick strike distances, and size positions.
How do you calculate expected move from IV?
The formula is: move = stock price × (IV / 100) × √(days / 365). For example, a $100 stock with 20% IV over 30 days gives a move of about $5.73. This calculator uses only numbers you enter, no live market data is fetched.
How does the straddle method work?
Add the at-the-money call price and the at-the-money put price. If the call trades at $3.00 and the put at $2.80, the options market is charging for a $5.80 move in either direction by expiration. The straddle figure runs a little under the IV-based one-sigma move (about 80% of it), so the two methods will not match exactly.
What is a 2-sigma range?
A 2-sigma range is price plus or minus (2 times the expected move). It covers roughly 95% of outcomes under a normal distribution. If the 1-sigma range is $94 to $106, the 2-sigma range is $88 to $112.
Can I use this for earnings trades?
Yes. Enter the stock price, the IV quoted for the nearest post-earnings expiry, and the days until expiration. The result shows how large a move the options market is pricing in. The straddle tab lets you skip IV and use the actual ATM straddle price instead.
Educational information, not investment advice.