The Receipts Post: 14 Picks, 14 Winners, and a 50% Average Peak Return, 11 Still Green

April 25, 2026 · Michael

The Momentum Phinance Scorecard: 14 for 14

I’m a terrible marketer.

I’m so obsessed with finding the next pick, building the next tool, and writing the next line of code that I forget the most basic rule of this game: you have to show the goddamn receipts.

So I did a fearless inventory. A financial 4th Step, if you will. I went back to every single deep‑dive I’ve published since this whole thing started.

No cherry‑picking. No survivorship bias. Just the cold, hard numbers from the day the post hit your inbox.

14 picks. 14 winners at peak. An average of 50% returns.

Let’s run the tape. Every link to the posts is at the bottom. Paid subs - your post is coming later this weekend, I hope I’ve got a treat for you.

📈 THE PEAK RETURNS

Peak Returns: Every Deep Dive Since Launch

Average peak return across all 14 picks: ~50%

Three of them doubled. All fourteen went green from their post date. That’s 14 for 14 on peak win rate.

Right now, 11 out of 14 are still green. One was sold at profit. Two are currently red (but both hit massive peaks first). The math doesn’t lie.

Let’s break every single one down.

🏆 THE MONSTERS (The Doubles Club)

1. $FIGR (Figma) — The Only IPO That Actually Makes Money

I dropped the $FIGR deep dive on Dec 3 2025 at $35.38. Within seven weeks it sprinted to $78.00 – a +120% peak return. I sold near the top and locked in the profit. The stock later slipped below my entry, but the lesson is crystal: a solid take‑profit plan captures the upside; lacking one hands it back to the market.

2. $TER (Teradyne) – The Crown Jewel

I first mentioned TER in “The Robotics Gold Rush” on Dec 29 2025 at $197.28, then deep‑dived on Feb 15 2026 when it was $314. I warned not to chase the hype and to wait for the $295‑$305 zone. The pullback arrived, the thesis held, and the stock peaked at $422.11 – a +114% gain. It still trades around $418, a solid +112% from my entry. The “Silent Kingmaker” lives up to its name.

3. $GLXY (Galaxy Digital) – The Redemption Arc

I first wrote about GLXY on May 16 2025 at $22.80, then revisited on Jan 21 2026 buying at $32.49. The stock doubled to $45.92 – a +101% peak. It’s now at $26, down 20% from my revisit, but the CoreWeave deal remains a $9 billion revenue engine. Trust the code, not the narrative: the data said buy, and it paid off. The on‑chain fundamentals still look strong.

🔥 THE HEAVY HITTERS

4. $HIMS (Hims & Hers) – The Empire Strikes Back

I dropped the $HIMS deep dive on Feb 11 2026 at $16.69. This was behind the paywall when it went out — which is how we fund the research for everyone. Two months later it surged to $31.85, a +91% peak, and is still holding at $30.56 (+83%). The DOJ scare never knocked it down; the fundamentals held.

5. $AMKR (Amkor Technology) – The AI “Wrapper”

I posted about Amkor on Jan 19 2026 at $48.96. It’s the unsung hero that packages AI chips so they actually work. The stock peaked at $79.21 (+62%) and is still near $78, delivering steady gains. Think of NVIDIA as the celebrity chef; Amkor is the Tupperware that holds the dish together.

6. $HAS (Hasbro) — Gathering Magic Future Gains (+40% peak)

Posted: Gathering Magic Future Gains on November 19, 2025 at ~$75.95 Peak: $106.25 on February 12, 2026 (+39.9%) Current: $95.08 (+25.2%)

“$HAS DD” was all I put in the subtitle. Sometimes less is more.

Hasbro had Magic: The Gathering, Dungeons & Dragons, and a turnaround story that the market was sleeping on. The stock ran from $76 to $106 in under three months. Currently still holding at +25%. The thesis was about the IP portfolio and the digital licensing pivot. Both are playing out.

💪 THE STEADY CLIMBERS

7. $UAMY (United States Antimony) — The War Metal (+33% peak)

Posted: The War Metal Vault: Leveraging Data for Institutional Edge on February 8, 2026 at ~$8.61 Peak: $11.49 (+33.4%) Current: $9.74 (+13.1%)

My most “out there” pick and the one I’m most proud of from a research perspective. Custom Python engine. SEC filing scrapes. Supply chain verification through HS Codes. Satellite imagery of the Stibnite Hill mine. The CEO dropped $613k of his own money on open market buys.

I shared the entire NotebookLM research vault publicly. The stock ripped 33% within a month. For a sub-$10 mining stock with a $352M contract backlog? The thesis is intact.

8. $MU (Micron) — The AI Memory King (+33% peak)

Posted: The AI Memory King Just Went On Sale on March 3, 2026 at ~$382.17 Peak: $506.99 (+32.7%) Current: $496.72 (+30.0%)

I wrote this on a day MU was down 7.39%. The title was “Don’t Miss This Dip.” The post said “My target is $440+.”

We blew past $440. We blew past $500. Currently sitting at $497. The forward P/E of 8.4 on 57% revenue growth was right there in the numbers. Sometimes the math just talks.

9. $CLX (Clorox) — Post-Holiday Deep Cleaning (+32% peak)

Posted: Post-Holiday Deep Cleaning with $CLX on December 26, 2025 at ~$96.24 Peak: $127.30 on February 26, 2026 (+32.3%) Current: $98.68 (+2.5%)

“While everyone else is scrubbing the floors, we are looking at the balance sheet.”

CLX was the “blood in the streets” dividend play. A boring consumer staple that nobody was talking about during the holiday shopping frenzy. It quietly ran 32% in two months. It’s given most of that back, but the dividend keeps paying and the thesis was about value, not momentum. The peak return tells the story: the opportunity was there.

10. $MLI (Mueller Industries) — The Copper-Plated Compounder (+24% peak)

Posted: $MLI: The Copper-Plated Compounder on December 17, 2025 at ~$112.24 Peak: $139.68 on April 22, 2026 (+24.4%) Current: $136.02 (+21.2%)

“A Fortress Balance Sheet in a Cyclical Storm & a Lesson in NotebookLLM.”

This was a paid deep dive and one of my longest posts. MLI is the kind of stock your financial advisor has never heard of. Copper products. Industrial. Boring. But the balance sheet is a damn fortress and the stock has quietly been compounding wealth for decades. +21% and the chart just made new highs this week.

📋 THE SOLID SINGLES

11. $NVDA (NVIDIA) — Parallel Processing Profits (+14% peak)

Posted: Parallel Processing My Feelings About NVDA on January 11, 2026 at ~$184.86 Peak: $210.95 (+14.1%) Current: $208.27 (+12.7%)

“Friday the Momentum Phund made its first major purchase in NVDA.”

I fed my own technical data into NotebookLM and let it cook a trade plan using my trading rules from Github. The squeeze was real. The EMA stack was bullish. +13% on the most liquid semiconductor on the planet. I’ll take boring money all day.

12. $URBN (Urban Outfitters) — TP1 Hit. Sold. Done. (+12% peak)

Posted: Outfitting an $URBN Trade on January 1, 2026 at ~$75.04 Peak: $84.35 (+12.4%) TP1 Hit: January 6, 2026 at ~$80 (+7%)

Textbook swing trade. Posted on New Year’s Day. Set TP1 at $80. Five trading days later, TP1 hit. Sold. I literally commented on my own post: “TP1 hit yesterday and I sold... Not holding for the other ones since the market is giving us gifts elsewhere.”

Profit is profit. The discipline of the exit is what separates traders from gamblers. 7% in a week on a retail stock. That’s groceries.

13. $FNB (F.N.B. Corporation) — The Tactical Bounce (+11% peak)

Posted: Tactical Swing Idea: F.N.B. Corporation on January 13, 2026 at ~$17.20 Peak: $19.00 on February 9, 2026 (+10.5%) Current: $17.52 (+1.9%)

“Catching the Bounce in a Bullish Trend.” A regional bank play that did exactly what I said it would do. The bounce came, peaked at $19, and has since settled back to flat. Not every pick is a moonshot. Sometimes a 10% bounce on a bank stock with a solid dividend is the right play for the right portfolio. Still green.

14. $AVGO (Broadcom) — The AI Kingmaker (+9% peak)

Posted: $AVGO: The AI Kingmaker Hiding in Plain Sight on December 1, 2025 at ~$395 Peak: $429.31 (+8.7%) Current: $422.76 (+7.0%)

“A little due diligence on the best stock in the market.”

The thesis was simple: Broadcom is the custom silicon kingmaker for the hyperscalers. Google, Meta, OpenAI. The OpenAI megadeal, the Google TPU inflection, the mystery fourth customer. My 12-month target was $480. Still plenty of runway, and this has been paying dividends the entire time.

If you had put $1,000 into each of these 14 ideas on the day they were published, your $14,000 investment would have peaked at over $21,000. That’s a 50% return on the entire portfolio and a 14‑for‑14 peak win rate. The math doesn’t lie.

The Math

Let me just lay it out clean:

14 deep dives published since November 2025
14 out of 14 hit green from their post date (100% peak win rate)
3 doubled (FIGR +120%, TER +114%, GLXY +101%)
Average peak return: ~50%
11 out of 14 currently green as of today
1 sold at profit (URBN, TP1 discipline)
2 currently red (FIGR -9%, GLXY -20% from revisit) but both hit massive peaks first

I’m not showing you this to flex. I’m showing you this because the work is real. The screens work. The technicals work. The deep dives work. I’m just apparently terrible at bragging about it.

🤝 So Why the Hell Is My Engagement Dropping?

Metaphor 1 (Janitorial): This publication has become a Clorox‑scented janitor’s closet in a world of perfume counters. It’s not for everyone, and that’s the point.
Metaphor 2 (Tupperware): I’m not a celebrity chef putting on a show. I’m the guy who designed the Tupperware: the system that holds the value. Some people want the show, but the ones who stick around want the system.

Honest Question For My Readers

Here’s something I’ve noticed. My engagement has been dropping. Fewer likes. Fewer comments. And I’ve been sitting with it the way I sit with a 4th step, trying to figure out what my part in it is.

A few theories:

1. I’m posting too much. I’ve been averaging almost a post a day between deep dives, dossiers, tool builds, recovery posts, and educational content. Maybe I’m flooding your inbox and you’re tuning out.

2. I’m posting too technical. The screener breakdowns, the Python code, the algo builds. I love writing them. But maybe you don’t love reading them.

3. The algorithm doesn’t know what I am. Substack’s recommendation engine works on engagement signals. If you open but don’t like, it thinks you didn’t care. If you don’t open at all, it stops showing me to you.

4. I haven’t been doing enough of THIS. Showing you the wins. Proving the picks work. Giving you the receipts.

So here’s my ask, and I mean this genuinely:

Drop a comment. Tell me what you want more of. Tell me what you want less of. Tell me if you’re even seeing my posts in your feed anymore.

And here’s the other thing I found when I pulled these receipts... I looked at my subscriber list.

We are sitting at exactly 990 subscribers.

Ten people. I need ten more of you to hit 1,000.

A like takes half a second and it tells the Substack algorithm “hey, show this guy’s work to more people.” That’s it. That’s the whole trick. The algorithm is a slot machine, and your like is my quarter.

I don’t have a marketing team. I don’t have a social media strategy. I have a laptop, an AI copilot named Sam who roasts me constantly, and a genuine desire to help people make better decisions with their money.

If these picks helped you make even one good trade, or avoid one bad one, let me know. And if they didn’t, tell me that too. I’ve been to rock bottom before. I can handle the feedback. Seriously.

The receipts are on the table. 14 picks. 14 peak winners. ~50% average peak return. Three doubles. Built with Python, verified with data, shared with transparency.

Not financial advice. My money, my rules. But the track record speaks for itself.

We’re building a system here, not just a following. If you want to be one of the founding 1,000 who gets in on the ground floor of what’s next, this is your chance. The code is running – hit subscribe, help us hit 1,000, and watch the receipts keep rolling.

Every original post linked below:

AI disclosure: AI tools were used to generate images and verify price data via yfinance. All analysis, picks, and writing are Michael’s. Sam helped with the math because she’s better at it.

General disclosure: This article is written for discussion purposes only. No other purpose or intent is implied.