PhD in Self-Sabotage? My AI Trading Desk Is My Sponsor
Position sizing in futures trading is where I always struggled. I’d be up a bunch then oversize and give it all back, or try and catch a $1500 bid to pass my prop with only 1 contract because I was scared after the previous.
How I still roll outlines for articles - Google Drive gets this and automatically creates a draft depending on my marks.
The 45% trader
There’s a crazy win rate disparity in futures trading, and it all depends on how you trade. In the image below, the first person I circled is what I believe most people envision - more dollars per trade lost, but a 70% in rate. That ain’t me.
I’m actually more about 45% win rate, and my Wins / Losses dollars column looks more similar to the second person I circled with a 30% win rate. 30% win rate and still making money?! Quite possible when you cut losers early.
Sizing
My biggest struggle. 1 NQ contract felt the same as 1 MNQ to me, even though they’re 10x apart. So why does trading 5 MNQ feel more stressful to me than just 1 NQ contract? It’s a mental thing, and I needed to fix it.
ATR and portfolio value based position sizing. No one trade will take out more than X% allocation of my entire port - calculated from the stop loss.
The tilt streak
The feeling: three red and you're not trading your plan anymore. Revenge trading kicks in, you wanna win it all back at once.
What the desk does: three losses in a row and it locks me out.
Just one more contract
I had 5 contracts on this trade, what could a sixth possibly hurt, even if I can’t afford it?
What the desk does: sizes from your remaining loss room and an ATR stop, always rounds down. If one contract risks too much it says REFUSED and tells you why.
Practice market, made-up prices. 1% risk gets REFUSED with the reason. At 5% it fits.
The stop I'll set in a second
What the desk does: the stop goes out right after the fill. If it isn't acknowledged in 5 seconds, it flattens and halts. Topstep already does this one out of the box, but the stops are based on Ticks or Dollars. The market doesn’t move the same number of ticks everyday though, so I want technicals determining my stops.
Before the fill the stop reads UNPROTECTED. After, ACKED. If that flip doesn't happen in 5 seconds, it flattens.
Giving it room
Hope dressed up as “trade management” is when used to widen my trailing stops. So I would widen my losses.
What the desk does: stops only move toward price. Breakeven, ATR trail, EMA 21 trail. Never wider.
The trail buttons say "not earned yet" until price pays for them.
The impulse click
What the desk does: you STAGE first, then hold PLACE for 600 ms. The AI can stage. Only you place. Most people probably wouldn’t need this one but I used to trade with hotkeys and I move fast. Reduces mistakes.
The win rate lie
The actual win rate I need to get back to even or the goal I set.
What the desk does: shows your win rate next to the win rate you need to break even, prices your fees as a share of 1R, and flags SMALL SAMPLE under 30 trades.
Someone else's trade
Discord signals from other professional traders in the TraderMatrix Discord at
What the desk does: draw their entry, stop and target, and there’s a one-click STAGE for it (off by default). The easiest button on screen shouldn't be someone else's trade.
What it won't do
This alone won't make you profitable (your README already says this). It stands between you and the version of you that shows up after two losses. Alpha software. It does not track Topstep's trailing floor for you.
Free, open, offline
[Why it's free and open source: there's no edge in it to steal, and nobody should run a closed program that places orders on their eval. Runs offline on a practice market so you can tilt on fake money first.]
The whole desk, mid-trade, on the practice market.
github.com/tradernetwork/projectx-desk
~ Michael