Retirement
Why Volatility Matters in the First Few Years of Retirement
A worked example of sequence-of-returns risk showing how a single bad early year can cost a retiree hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Educational only. Not financial, tax or legal advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Any dollar amounts or tax rules here are tied to the year they were written and change annually — verify current figures and talk to a qualified professional about your own situation.
Let's talk about volatility in the early years of retirement and how it can impact your portfolio long-term. Early losses, especially in the first few years, can set your retirement back significantly. It's important to understand how this works so you can plan accordingly and avoid a rocky start to your retirement.
The Impact of Early Volatility
When you first retire, you begin drawing from your savings. If the market takes a dive early on, the combination of withdrawals and a market downturn can leave your portfolio struggling to recover. This is called sequence of returns risk, and it's one of the most overlooked risks in retirement planning.
Example: A 15% Bear Market in Year 1
Let's break it down with an example. We have two retirees, both starting with $1,000,000 and withdrawing $40,000 per year. The only difference between them is the market performance in the first year of retirement.
Scenario 1: Steady Growth
- The market grows at 6% per year from the start.
- Even with annual withdrawals, the portfolio grows and can withstand the withdrawals without a major impact.
After 10 years, the retiree has $1.23 million left.
Scenario 2: 15% Bear Market in Year 1, Then 6% Growth
- Year 1: The market drops 15%, which cuts the portfolio down to $850,000.
- Withdrawals still happen, reducing the balance to $810,000.
- After that, the portfolio recovers at 6% per year.
After 10 years, the retiree has only $908,000 left.
That's a $323,000 difference! A market drop early in retirement can be devastating to your long-term financial picture.
Ways to Plan for Volatility
(These are general ideas, not personalized financial advice.)
Have a Cash Cushion: Keep 2-3 years' worth of living expenses in low-risk assets. This helps you avoid selling investments in a downturn.
Be Flexible with Withdrawals: In years when the market is down, try to reduce your withdrawals or pull from safer, tax-advantaged accounts.
Adjust Your Asset Allocation: Consider more conservative investments in the first few years of retirement to help smooth out the volatility.
Key Takeaway
Volatility in the early years of retirement can derail your financial goals, but with the right strategy, you can mitigate the risks. Having a cushion, adjusting your strategy, and being flexible with withdrawals can help protect your portfolio from early market drops and keep your retirement plans on track.
